Anything above 200,000, and the S&P 500 Index is seen dropping about 1%, according to Goldman Sachs. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. trading desk note sees the gauge as poised to potentially fall by 0.5% to 1% if the print is above 220,000.

Good news for the U.S. economy is back to being bad for Wall Street as the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq all post losses.

The market outlook for 2025 sees U.S. GDP growing at a healthy rate, the stock market gains diversifying beyond the Magnificent Seven—with health care a likely winner—and an evolution in the AI sector that powered virtually all of last year’s rally.