China has strengthened trade with Latin America at the expense of the U.S. But Donald Trump, who threatens to raise tariffs on Mexico, could upend those ties.

China, the world’s largest soybean consumer, now gets most of its supply from Brazil, but securing a new trade deal with the US could protect American farmers’ interests.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of as high as 60% on China, as well as lesser ones with the US’ biggest trade partners, threats that could upend global trade and economic growth. A harsher US tariffs regime could push China to seek stronger ties with developing nations: A new study by the Boston Consulting Group suggests that Beijing’s trade with the Global South — home to 62% of the world’s population — could surpass $1.