Historically, oil price swings would set off alarms about inflation. But today’s economists are more cautious about declaring oil as the prime driver of consumer price hikes. Chart via Economics ...

U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 4% to $59.56 per barrel Tuesday as domestic production is expected to decline. A pumpjack west of Buttonwillow in Kern County, Calif., on April 9.

In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. All eyes on the dollar ...

In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, the carnage was even worse, since the consumer-price index rose 14% over that 14-month period. Read: Why falling oil prices could actually drag the stock market ...

U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods like household furniture and recreation ...

The direction oil prices take is likely to depend on whether Iran’s parliament decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that accounts for about 20% of the world’s crude oil.